Adrian Peterson celebrates a touchdown. If you land him in your draft, you should celebrate too.
It’s that time of year again – Fantasy Football. For those who play, it’s a religion. For those who don’t, well I don’t really remember what it’s like, but it’s probably annoying being surrounded by people who do. Either way, I’ll be doing a series of Mock Drafts that are a little different than what you’ll see from your expert columns wherever you play. Instead of ranking players, I’m participating in random mock drafts and posting the results with my insight from round to round on whatever sticks out. Feel free to comment below with questions, comments, and insight of your own.
ESPN Standard League, 8-team draft.
I ended up with the 6th pick in this draft out of 8 teams, so near the bottom of the pack. Rough start, as most elite running backs figure to be off the board, but still good talent in the top 8. The plus side is that in a snake draft, like this one, there isn’t quite as large of a gap between picks. Note that my picks are bolded, and that I simply autopicked after the 7th round due to my internet crashing.
Round: 1
(1) Adrian Peterson RB
(2) Arian Foster RB
(3) Ray Rice RB
(4) Marshawn Lynch RB
(5) Jamaal Charles RB
(6) C.J. Spiller RB
(7) Alfred Morris RB
(8) Doug Martin RB
Thoughts:
-Whether you think Adrian Peterson repeats last year’s performance or not, he has to go number one overall here. Will he be the number one running back at the end of the year? I think so, but there’s no guaranteee. Either way, he’s a safe #1 and a star.
-Sort of surprised Arian Foster went #2. I mean, yes, it’s Arian Foster. But he’s injured and currently on the PUP list. The way I see it, the less you play in the preseason, the less you play in the regular season – he’s already hurt, and without preseason conditioning, he’ll aggravate the injuries in the first month or so of play. Take him late in the first or early in the second, but have a backup plan if you do. I’m not sold.
-WHERE is Calvin Johnson? If this were a PPR league, he’d surely go in the top 3 to 5, but either way I’m somewhat surprised. I didn’t take him because of the rate good RBs were flying off the board, but don’t take a chance in your league. If your top few RBs are gone, draft Johnson in the first, no matter the format. Remember, he broke Jerry Rice’s All-Time receiving yards record last season, and did so with broken fingers.
-I think Rice has lost a step, and unless this is a PPR league, I don’t take him so high. Just a risk for a #3 pick, in my opinion. I love Charles, but am wary of him. Was he a beast when he came back from injury last year? Yes. Do I think he’ll stay healthy? No. C.J. Spiller is primed for a HUGE year. Forget Fred Jackson. Spiller is the man in the new up tempo Buffalo offense. Not sold on Alfred Morris or Doug Martin, and think they’ll be prone to a down year now that teams had an offseason to figure them out. More of a second-round pick.
Round: 2
(9) Trent Richardson RB
(10) Aaron Rodgers QB
(11) Calvin Johnson WR
(12) Drew Brees QB
(13) Stevan Ridley RB
(14) LeSean McCoy RB
(15) A.J. Green WR
(16) Steven Jackson RB
Thoughts:
-Calvin Johnson at #11?! Robbery. Send me to jail.
– I think Richardson should be behind Morris and Martin, but I don’t think he should be ninth. Later in the second round.
-Never trust a Patriots’ RB this early, unless his name is Corey Dillon and the calendar says 2004. Maybe in a PPR, but Ridley isn’t a pass catcher. This is still Tom Brady’s offense, despite efforts (and successes) to balance the offense a bit.
-I’m biased towards McCoy. Take him higher in PPR, although beware of his concussion history coming back to note you.
– I’m tempted to put Brees ahead of Rodgers. After shattering Dan Marino’s old record of 5,084 yards with 5,476 yards in 2011, Brees followed up the campaign with 5,177 yards, which also would have broken the record, last season where the Saints weren’t very good and were without their head coach and a defense.
– Count me among those who think Steven Jackson has a career year as the #1 RB on a very good Atlanta team. Lets hope his knees can handle the carries. I think he scores at least 10 TDs
Round: 3
(17) Tom Brady QB
(18) Brandon Marshall WR
(19) Dez Bryant WR
(20) Demaryius Thomas WR
(21) Julio Jones WR
(22) Peyton Manning QB
(23) Chris Johnson RB
(24) Andre Johnson WR
-Tom Brady easily goes in the second round, and in most leagues that are 10 teams, he would. Don’t read into the hysteria about Brady losing his top 5 pass catchers from last season; it’s true, but he’ll be fine. Amendola will fill the Welker role if healthy, Rob Gronkowski will be back in the second half of the season when you need Brady most, and rookie receiver Antoine Dobson has looked phenonenal in camp. Not to mention Shane Vereen is one of Brady’s favorite RB targets since the Kevin Faulk glory days. Brady is a safe pick, and could easily go much higher than 17.
-I have unjustifiable faith in Brandon Marshall, especially when Jay Cutler throws him the ball. I think I need therapy. I’m okay with him at 18 though (he’d be higher in PPR formats), but Julio Jones needs to be ahead of him. I don’t understand how Julio Jones was taken after Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. Anyone?
-I took Manning over Jones for two reasons: A) he’s the last “Elite” Fantasy QB (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning), although I’ll tough more on that later, and B) It’s standard format and God hates WRs in Standard Leagues.
-Does anyone really have faith in Chris Johnson? This is why I hate standard leagues that praise running backs. Chris Johnson? CJ<1K?! Ugh.
-Andre Johnson at 24: Sleeper-like steal, or over-paying bust? I’m not sold either way, but he should still be a top receiver.
Round: 4
(25) Roddy White WR
(26) Frank Gore RB
(27) Matt Forte RB
(28) David Wilson RB
(29) Cam Newton QB
(30) Jimmy Graham TE
(31) Maurice Jones-Drew RB
(32) Vincent Jackson WR
– The Falcons didn’t make Roddy White their #1 receiver, don’t make him yours either.
-Frank Gore, MJD, Matt Forte, David Wilson. I trust Forte the most, but again, more so in a PPR format. Why are people jumping on the David Wilson train for the Giants? Remember Roy Helu? Oh, you drafted him as a starter? And you lost your league? Oh, okay. Glad to hear you didn’t forget. Let someone else draft David Wilson. If HE wins your league, well I’ll be damned.
-I may be Cam Newton’s biggest supporter, but with Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and Andrew Luck on the board, I’m hesitaant taking him this early.
Round: 5
(33) Randall Cobb WR
(34) Matt Ryan QB
(35) Larry Fitzgerald WR
(36) Wes Welker WR
(37) Marques Colston WR
(38) Victor Cruz WR
(39) Reggie Wayne WR
(40) Hakeem Nicks WR
-I don’t like Randall Cobb this high, despite what his numbers say. I’m probably wrong on this, but I’m personally not risking a pick in the 30s on one season of production. Greg Jennings is gone, but Cobb isn’t necessarily the answer.
-Remember when Larry Fitzgerald was a Top 10 pick? Remember when picking Larry FItzgerald in the Top 10 burned you every time? Sigh. So. Much. Talent. Wasted.
-Matt Ryan at 34 is the steal of the draft. I’m going on record right now saying he throws 4500+ yards, 35+ TDs, 10 or fewers picks.
-I love Welker, Colston, Cruz, Wayne, and Nicks, also think any of them could have gone higher, even in a standard league. Mix and match any 2 or 3, and you’ve got a solid WR core on your fantasy team. I’d take Cruz first, then Welker, Wayne, Nicks, and then Colston. Don’t agree? Yell at me in the comments and we can work this out.
Round: 6
(41) Colin Kaepernick QB
(42) Dwayne Bowe WR
(43) Rob Gronkowski TE
(44) Robert Griffin III QB
(45) Darren Sproles RB
(46) DeMarco Murray RB
(47) Mike Wallace WR
(48) Reggie Bush RB
-I don’t trust Kaepernick (sue me), Sproles (too old, defenses know him/the Saints system too well), Demarco Murray (too injured) or Reggie Bush (sue me again, but he’s had one decent fantasy year ever. He’s not going to bust out now, and he’s virtually worthless outside of PPR).
-I think Mike Wallace could quickly become Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target. Everyone’s down on Wallace after years of being up on him. Now I’m up on Wallace after years of being down on him.
-Don’t take Gronk too early, but don’t let him pass you by. Get him when you can for when he comes back healthy and destroying small cities and “The Patriot Way” as we’ve grown accustomed to in recent years.
Round: 7
(49) Seahawks D/ST D/ST
(50) Jason Witten TE
(51) Matthew Stafford QB
(52) Darren McFadden RB
(53) Tony Gonzalez TE
(54) Danny Amendola WR
(55) James Jones WR
(56) Eddie Lacy RB
-Don’t take Amendola too early in Standard Leagues. Hold your ground, and snipe when appropriate. Do I think he’s a Top 10 WR this year? Yes. Can you get him in the 5th-7th rounds of your drafts? Probably. Steal him here and reap the plenty.
-Tony Gonzalez is good for 70 catches, 800 yards and 8 touchdowns if he stays healthy. He’s a third option on a good team with a great QB. He can be your TE on a championship team.
-I want to call Stafford a steal here, I do. I can’t though. He’s not quite Elite, yet. But if you drafted Calvin Johnson, he’s not a bad guy to have as well. You won’t be hurt by Stafford
Round: 8
(57) Kyle Rudolph TE
(58) Vernon Davis TE
(59) Montee Ball RB
(60) Chris Ivory RB
(61) Steve Smith WR
(62) Ryan Mathews RB
(63) 49ers D/ST D/ST
(64) Cecil Shorts WR
SO at this point I lost internet connectivity and autodrafted. My comments will be limited going forward, but comment with questions on the late rounds and I’ll happily give my opinions.
PS – I don’t trust Chris Ivory. Backup? Sure. Not a starter, if you can manage it.
-Not a terrible idea taking your defense if there isn’t a standout producer left that you need. Rank them before so you know when to strike, like this guy did with the 49ers. Also, I’m all about the Seahawks Defense.
Round: 9
(65) Greg Olsen TE
(66) Eric Decker WR
(67) Andrew Luck QB
(68) Antonio Brown WR
(69) Lamar Miller RB
70) Jordy Nelson WR
(71) Torrey Smith WR
(72) BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
-Luck down here is a value pick. If you still need a QB or are looking for a quality Bye Week starter/backup, take him.
-Torrey Smith is pretty much Joe Flacco’s #1 target…take that as you wish…
Round: 10
(73) Anquan Boldin WR
(74) Le’Veon Bell RB
(75) Pierre Garcon WR
(76) Ahmad Bradshaw RB
(77) DeSean Jackson WR
(78) Texans D/ST D/ST
(79) Russell Wilson QB
(80) DeAngelo Williams RB
-if Garcon stays healthy (I think he will) and RGIII gets/stays healthy (I think he will), this is a steal. Potentially a Top 10 WR at 75? I’ll happily take it.
-Same kind of applies to DeSean Jackson, Michael Vick, and the Eagles, but I’m not sold on their offense or their team. That said, he could definitely be a Top 10-15 WR if all goes well.
-Russell Wilson: I’m sold on him being a good NFL QB. Fantasy? Not quite yet. Not a bad backup, though, especially if he breaks out.
Round: 11
(81) Greg Jennings WR
(82) Tavon Austin WR
(83) Rashard Mendenhall RB
(84) Owen Daniels TE
(85) Steve Johnson WR
(86) Shane Vereen RB
(87) Miles Austin WR
(88) Antonio Gates TE
-Jennings: UBER Steal at 81 if he’s healthy. This is a Vikings team that made the Playoffs without a passing game. Now they’ve got a stud like Jennings? This only helps Peterson and Jennings. Don’t bank on him, but 81st is a steal, period.
-Shane Vereen…Patriots RB…Not a PPR League…clearly autodraft hates me
Round: 12
(89) Eli Manning QB
(90) Sidney Rice WR
(91) Vick Ballard RB
(92) Tony Romo QB
(93) Andre Brown RB
(94) T.Y. Hilton WR
(95) Johnathan Franklin RB
(96) Ben Roethlisberger QB
-Draft Eli Manning if you want to rip your hair out over dumb interceptions and lose your fantasy league
-Tony Romo: See Manning, Eli.
Ben Roethlisburger: See Romo, Tony.
Round: 13
(97) Stephen Gostkowski K
(98) Mike Williams WR
(99) Lance Moore WR
(100) Giovani Bernard RB
(101) Ryan Williams RB
(102) Kenny Britt WR
(103) Michael Vick QB
(104) Blair Walsh K
-Remember what I said about the Defense? Same goes for Kickers. Screw the “no kickers before the last round” rule. Get your guy.
-I’m not saying Michael Vick is going to “break out” but I’m also not saying Chip Kelly is going to fail. If I had actually been picking, he’d probably be my backup QB
Round: 14
(105) Justin Tucker K
(106) Brandon Myers TE
(107) Mark Ingram RB
(108) Isaiah Pead RB
(109) Emmanuel Sanders WR
(110) Denarius Moore WR
(111) Mikel Leshoure RB
(112) Golden Tate WR
-Mark Ingram: See Patriots, Running Backs for the
Round: 15
(113) Bears D/ST D/ST
(114) Chris Givens WR
(115) Josh Gordon WR
(116) Broncos D/ST D/ST
(117) Bengals D/ST D/ST
(118) Patriots D/ST D/ST
(119) Steelers D/ST D/ST
(120) Ravens D/ST D/ST
-I don’t see the Steelers D being draft worthy. Or the Bengals, for that matter. Patriots? I’ve avoided them at all costs in recent years due to their tendency to give up stupid late touchdowns in games they’ve already won. That could stop this season on an improved team with a better attitude.
Round: 16
(121) Packers D/ST D/ST
(122) Matt Bryant K
(123) Matt Prater K
(124) Phil Dawson K
(125) Randy Bullock K
(126) Josh Brown K
(127) Sebastian Janikowski K
(128) Jared Cook TE
-Mr. Irrelevant: Jared Cook. Quick Story – one of my best friends took some no name TE as the last pick in our draft a few years ago because he needed a backup and took my advice from this column and took his kicker earlier. The guy he picked with the very last pick in our draft? Just a red-headed 6-foot-6 monster named Jimmy Graham. And yeah, it was the year he broke out as a star. Always run em out, kids.
Seriously, comment below. Argue with me, please. Tell me I’m wrong. It’ll make all of us better.
Follow me on Twitter, too: @PatBradleyUSCHO
Blind Obedience 